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Why Trout isn't 'Clutch'


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At some point, there are going to be specific thread topics related to Trout and his lack of clutch and I just wanted to preemptively point out a couple of things. 

 

It is actually quite rare for superstar players to perform as well in high leverage situations relative to moderate and low leverage situations.  In these high leverage situations, superstars are keyed upon and game planned such that they aren't given the same opportunities as they might otherwise. 

 

As an example, Trout's obp is similar across all leverage situations yet his slugging % is much lower in high leverage.  Why?  He just doesn't get the same pitches.  And he approaches the situation like he's not going to.  Like his last at bat tonight.  I think he was pretty surprised at the 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs right down broadway.  So much so that he had his bat on his shoulder.  He will get better, but it's gonna take some time. 

 

Also, because of all the specialty pen arms, he is going to be facing guys with live arms and tough breakers.  On top of that he will be seeing them for the first time that game.  A big part of why he is so good is how much better he is vs. a pitcher the second or third time around. 

 

Finally, league wide, the wRC+ in high leverage is lower than it is in other leverage situations lending to the above that bullpens offset this. 

Edited by Dochalo
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At some point, there are going to be specific thread topics related to Trout and his lack of clutch and I just wanted to preemptively point out a couple of things. 

 

It is actually quite rare for superstar players to perform as well in high leverage situations relative to moderate and low leverage situations.  In these high leverage situations, superstars are keyed upon and game planned such that they aren't given the same opportunities as they might otherwise. 

 

As an example, Trout's obp is similar across all leverage situations yet his slugging % is much lower in high leverage.  Why?  He just doesn't get the same pitches.  

 

Over the last year Trout has been routinely pitched around so that the opposing team can get easy outs from Pujols / Hamilton. 

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At some point, there are going to be specific thread topics related to Trout and his lack of clutch and I just wanted to preemptively point out a couple of things. 

 

It is actually quite rare for superstar players to perform as well in high leverage situations relative to moderate and low leverage situations.  In these high leverage situations, superstars are keyed upon and game planned such that they aren't given the same opportunities as they might otherwise. 

 

As an example, Trout's obp is similar across all leverage situations yet his slugging % is much lower in high leverage.  Why?  He just doesn't get the same pitches.  And he approaches the situation like he's not going to.  Like his last at bat tonight.  I think he was pretty surprised at the 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs right down broadway.  So much so that he had his bat on his shoulder.  He will get better, but it's gonna take some time. 

 

Also, because of all the specialty pen arms, he is going to be facing guys with live arms and tough breakers.  On top of that he will be seeing them for the first time that game.  A big part of why he is so good is how much better he is vs. a pitcher the second or third time around. 

 

Finally, league wide, the wRC+ in high leverage is lower than it is in other leverage situations lending to the above that bullpens offset this. 

 

Trout's WRC+

 

low leverage 182

medium leverage 153

high leverage 110

 

Not only does he become an average hitter at crucial situations his strikeout rate goes way up and he has only 1 HR 3 doubles 1 triple in 112 at bats.

 

And your argument doesn't work because this collapse doesn't happen to most other superstar players.

Miguel Cabrera

low leverage 149

med leverage 154

high leverage 157

 

Alex Rodriguez

low leverage 149

med leverage 140

high leverage 146

 

I could keep going on and on.

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Over the last year Trout has been routinely pitched around so that the opposing team can get easy outs from Pujols / Hamilton. 

exactly.  and he's going to continue to get pitched around regardless of who is behind him because he's better than everyone else. 

We should all get used to the fact that Trout will never produce in high leverage what he does the rest of the time. 

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Trout's WRC+

 

low leverage 182

medium leverage 153

high leverage 110

 

Not only does he become an average hitter at crucial situations his strikeout rate goes way up and he has only 1 HR 3 doubles 1 triple in 112 at bats.

 

And your argument doesn't work because this collapse doesn't happen to most other superstar players.

Miguel Cabrera

low leverage 149

med leverage 154

high leverage 157

 

Alex Rodriguez

low leverage 149

med leverage 140

high leverage 146

 

I could keep going on and on.

Those wRC+ numbers are relative to how all other players are doing in those situations as well.  Each of the players you mentioned are not as good in high leverage as they are overall.  ie in reference to themselves.  wRC+ compares them to others.  Not themselves. 

 

If you look at WPA vs. WPA/Li for each of those players, their 'clutch' stat is actually negative. 

 

You also posted career numbers for two guys that have been in the league for 10+ years.  What you didn't note was that Miguel Cabrera had seasons where his wRC+ in high leverage were 65, 103, and 59. Arod had seasons of 118, 92, 95, 64 and 64

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Those wRC+ numbers are relative to how all other players are doing in those situations as well.  Each of the players you mentioned are not as good in high leverage as they are overall.  ie in reference to themselves.  wRC+ compares them to others.  Not themselves. 

 

If you look at WPA vs. WPA/Li for each of those players, their 'clutch' stat is actually negative. 

 

You also posted career numbers for two guys that have been in the league for 10+ years.  What you didn't note was that Miguel Cabrera had seasons where his wRC+ in high leverage were 65, 103, and 59. Arod had seasons of 118, 92, 95, 64 and 64

I don't think you understand how Wrc+ works.

The number is similar to ops+ which gives league average hitter 100 so no it doesn't compare against league wide clutch numbers as it's just based on total league average.

And do you know who had the second worst WPA clutch numbers in the major league last year?

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And believe me Trout is my favorite player by a huge margin but his completes collapse in the clutch shows that it's 100% mental and not physical. If he would have a small or medium decline it would be understandable but not the complete collapse of his play that we have seen. Can you remember a memorable at bat he has had in the clutch yet in his career. I have watched 95% of his games and the best I can remember are some walks and some singles to extend innings and even those are far and few in between.

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I don't think you understand how Wrc+ works.

The number is similar to ops+ which gives league average hitter 100 so no it doesn't compare against league wide clutch numbers as it's just based on total league average.

And do you know who had the second worst WPA clutch numbers in the major league last year?

uh yeah.  I'm pretty well versed on what wRC+ means.  the wRC+ for each player in various leverage situations is posted as a split relative to the average for leverage.  Not overall league average of all situations.  So if a player has a split wRC+ of 100 in high leverage they are exactly league average in those situations.  That the reason they call it a split. 

 

And again, wRC+ measures a player relative to his peer for that year.  Not to himself.  Clutch tells you how a player performs in high leverage relative to just his own performance overall.  Mike Trout was the least 'clutch' player last year meaning he had the greatest variance of how he did in high leverage relative to non-high leverage situations.  Yet he was still above league average in high leverage situations relative to the rest of the league. 

 

Here is my point because you seem to be missing it:

1. We have a small sample on Trout in high leverage so far. 

2.  I am aware that he hasn't performed as well in high leverage as he does otherwise.  I am also aware that he hasn't even been all that good relative to the rest of the league

3.  We shouldn't expect him to perform as well in high leverage as he does otherwise as most superstars don't

4.  He should get better over time, though, relative to the rest of the league.  His wRC+ in high leverage relative to what the rest of the league does in high leverage will get better or at least normalize with more chances.  If you want to draw conclusions on him based on 9% of his total plate appearances, go ahead. 

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One thing about Trout so far this year, and I'm still not sure if it's an issue, is that his contact percentage 'outside' the zone has fallen bigtime from his career norm.  Does that have anything to do with his more aggressive approach?  Who knows, but if it keeps up, while he may hit more home runs, he'll likely see a significant drop off in BA.  Look to see a 35 HR and .285 BA type season.

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One thing about Trout so far this year, and I'm still not sure if it's an issue, is that his contact percentage 'outside' the zone has fallen bigtime from his career norm.  Does that have anything to do with his more aggressive approach?  Who knows, but if it keeps up, while he may hit more home runs, he'll likely see a significant drop off in BA.  Look to see a 35 HR and .285 BA type season.

Trout hit .261 in April last year. 

 

Also, according to pitch/fx data, his o-contact % is actually higher that it was last year so far.  Not sure why there is such a large discrepancy.  His swing % is only a couple of points higher but my guess is that if you split out his April of last year it would be pretty high as well. 

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Like i said in the rant thread last night. Trout is still young and maybe this is where his game improves.

quote name="Dochalo" post="308452" timestamp="1397370799"]

At some point, there are going to be specific thread topics related to Trout and his lack of clutch and I just wanted to preemptively point out a couple of things.

It is actually quite rare for superstar players to perform as well in high leverage situations relative to moderate and low leverage situations. In these high leverage situations, superstars are keyed upon and game planned such that they aren't given the same opportunities as they might otherwise.

As an example, Trout's obp is similar across all leverage situations yet his slugging % is much lower in high leverage. Why? He just doesn't get the same pitches. And he approaches the situation like he's not going to. Like his last at bat tonight. I think he was pretty surprised at the 2-0 and 3-1 fastballs right down broadway. So much so that he had his bat on his shoulder. He will get better, but it's gonna take some time.

Also, because of all the specialty pen arms, he is going to be facing guys with live arms and tough breakers. On top of that he will be seeing them for the first time that game. A big part of why he is so good is how much better he is vs. a pitcher the second or third time around.

Finally, league wide, the wRC+ in high leverage is lower than it is in other leverage situations lending to the above that bullpens offset this.

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Here is my point because you seem to be missing it:

1. We have a small sample on Trout in high leverage so far. 

2.  I am aware that he hasn't performed as well in high leverage as he does otherwise.  I am also aware that he hasn't even been all that good relative to the rest of the league

3.  We shouldn't expect him to perform as well in high leverage as he does otherwise as most superstars don't

4.  He should get better over time, though, relative to the rest of the league.  His wRC+ in high leverage relative to what the rest of the league does in high leverage will get better or at least normalize with more chances.  If you want to draw conclusions on him based on 9% of his total plate appearances, go ahead. 

 

So in other words, he's not clutch.  Got it.

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