Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

Angels projected to be 20th best rotation by Fangraphs


Recommended Posts

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-positional-power-rankings-starting-pitchers-16-30/

 

Seems like a fair projection. They were projected to be the 18th best rotation entering the 2013 season. It's using projected WAR, which undervalues guys like Weaver and Santiago so you could bump up the Angels a few spots. 

 

Rangers are projected 3rd(lol). Mariners are projected 7th. A's are projected 13th. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

`

Those projections must assume a roster that isn't going to be there on opening day for the rest of the Angels competition in the AL West. The injury bug has decimated the Rangers to the point they can't really be close to a top 10 staff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those projections must assume a roster that isn't going to be there on opening day for the rest of the Angels competition in the AL West. The injury bug has decimated the Rangers to the point they can't really be close to a top 10 staff.

Yup there's this little flaw with the projections too:

 

"Dave Cameron: As Jeff noted, the projections for Scheppers are Ross were loaded as if they were going to be relievers, and haven’t been updated to reflect that they were moved into the rotation. The numbers are overrating those two, basically."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eh

Fangraphs WAR for pitchers is mostly based on FIP, which I'm not a fan of. If we had five Blanton's in the rotation, we'd be ranked #1

I tend to agree a bit but overall the rankings are pretty good. I obviously think the Rangers are far too high but that's a system flaw more than anything. 

 

Dodgers should definitely be top 5 and the Mariners should be much lower considering the rotation they'll throw out there the first month. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

zips/steamer typically underestimates production from young players although I think the skaggs proj is adequate.  They have limited innings for Santiago based off the fact that he was a pen guy previously.  I also think they short changed Richards a bit.  Not because I think their numbers are inaccurate but because I think he'll be more like the like we saw at the end of last year.  I think the Weaver and Wilson comps are decent.  I also feel like Shoemaker and Alvarez will perform better than replacement players filling in the starts the top five don't make. 

 

So I don't think they are far off but I'm guessing they'll be a couple of wins better than projected.  Which will actually move them to the middle of the pack overall and frankly, I'd be just fine with that.

 

As an aside, their 2013 projections had them ranked 18th with 12.7 WAR.  Interesting that the projections have become more conservative on the pitching side.  They had Hanson and Blanton at a combined 4.2 WAR and Weaver/Wilson at 6.5 dropping to 5.3 this year. 

 

Pen comes out tomorrow.  I think the Halos are going to get hammered there but have a very good chance to outperform.  I've got a good feeling about Lyon and Salas.  Jep and Frieri will be what we expect and I am worried about Smith and DDLR.  Those last two are the key.  If they both put up similar number to last year, the pen will actually be very solid. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-positional-power-rankings-starting-pitchers-16-30/

 

Seems like a fair projection. They were projected to be the 18th best rotation entering the 2013 season. It's using projected WAR, which undervalues guys like Weaver and Santiago so you could bump up the Angels a few spots. 

 

Rangers are projected 3rd(lol). Mariners are projected 7th. A's are projected 13th. 

All the rotations in the AL West have question marks. Beyond Perez and Darvish, the Rangers have 2 pitchers who haven't started. The Angels have 3 unproven starters while the A's and Mariners have a few injuries. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I take those rankings with a grain of salt because they're based upon fWAR, which I don't really think is that useful to determine overall value (as I wrote about in the #1-15 comments and got some nerd-rage for). Plus its just too hard to tell with Richards, Santiago and Skaggs. The rotation could be #25 by year's end, or #10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Angels certainly will have to earn their position this year in pitching but as Cameron makes excuses for Texas' ranking and assumes players will return from the DL in time and put up their career numbers, you have to assume the Angels are going into the season stronger, at least for the first three months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i will likely get bashed for this but i still dont get the A's love... the luck has to run out sometime.

That having been said if thier staff isnt better than 13th they miss the playoffs in my opinion.  they were a top 5-10 in most key areas last year so in effect this is projecting them to be worse in that regard which means that run differential likely comes back down a fair bit so... unless the offense is miles better, which isnt likely, they fall from grace.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I know, last year the Angels left ST having allowed 229 runs, so far this ST they have allowed 119, yeah, its ST, but it was ST last year too.

 

The defense has looked soooo much tighter.  The pen is still suspect but there is more depth to it and Santiago, Richards, and Skaggs have all shown flashes of brilliance we never saw from Hanson, Vargas, or Blanton.   The one guy I do wish they still had is Williams, not that he was a star or anything, but he was the classic "mudder", you could count on him to show up to the race no matter how messy it was.

 

I'm a big stats guy, I look at and compare all the projections, but for me there is a level of optimism based on how they have played and executed the last two weeks of ST that I haven't felt in a long time.

Edited by Inside Pitch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, those should be out soon.

 

I'll be interested to see where the Halos and M's are respectively.  Both should be very low, but I'm betting the M's are lower.  

 

As I said in another thread where you downplayed the M's bullpen, you have zero clue what you are talking about when it comes to the M's bullpen.

 

They sign Rodney, they still have Farquhar, Wilhelmsen isn't far removed from being awesome ... that is 3 possible lights out closers in ONE bullpen. 

 

And Fangraphs already did the Relief pitcher ratings ... M's are 7th, Angels are 24th.

 

Rangers are 8th and A's are 10th. Who cares about the Astros.

Edited by Ender
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...