Oakland to open season w/2 starters on DL

[Redondo]

Blanton to the A's sounds good to me.

[jshep]

I have confidence in the Angels triple A starters to come in and pitch a few games to a 4.5 or 5 ERA. I think we'll get four guys with 30 starts though so we'll likely have to rely on them for only ten to twelve starts.

Luckily everyone is healthy right now, and actually we've had a healthy rotation under Butcher except 2009 and last year.

Shoemaker could do that in his starts, but the rest of the group is the likes of Jarrett Grube, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Thomas, and Joe Martinez. Who all suck. A lot.

[Hubs]

Grubbe, LeBlanc, Thomas and Roth might combine for a few starts this year. Shoemaker is the sixth starter and he'll maybe get six or seven. Blanton might get three or four but that's only if they keep him. And only if Santiago, Richards, and Skaggs fail to pitch 27. 33+33+27+27+27 = 147... That means 15 starts for these six guys.

In 2011 they had Haren had 34 starts. Weaver and Santana pitched 33 each. Pineiro gave them 24 and Chatwood had 25. That's 149 starts. Thirteen starts made by other guys including Kazmir (1), Williams (6), Palmer (3) and Richards (3).

Pineiro had an ERA over five and Chatwood's was at 4.75. Williams managed a 3.6 ERA but Palmer and Richards neared six. And Kazmir pitched to a 27.00 ERA.

I bring this up because even with a bad four and five spots, and with Kazmir suffering an injury or generally just sucking or whatever, even with a guy no one had really heard of occupying the fifth spot for the majority of the year and an independent ball signing starting six games, the Angels allowed just 633 runs, the lowest of Scioscia's tenure. And remember the pen wasn't excellent that year with Walden and Rodney sucking in the closer role.

If just one of Santiago, Richards, or Skaggs is able to give you Santana's 33 starts and mid 3's ERA from that year you don't think our rotation is going to be fine?

Weaver had an excellent season in 2011 and though I expect his ERA to be at least a half a run to a full run higher, and Wilson probably will be a quarter run higher than Haren, if two of the three youngsters can give you a high 3's or even a 4 ERA the Angels will be fine. (That will offset the gains by Weaver and Wilson). And the fifth guy then can basically throw a five ERA. (Though I hope he doesn't).

Even if Grubbe, Shoemaker, Blanton, LeBlanc and Thomas start the 10-13 games and give up ERA's in the 5's the Angels still should be around 650 runs allowed. Which is nearly ninety runs better than last year, and considering they scored 733 with an offense that struggled.... And should be at least 800 if everything goes as planned... They'll win 90+ and be in the playoff hunt.

[Hubs]

My projections:

Weaver.. 32 Starts, 3.11 ERA. 200 IP. 69 ER

Wilson... 34 Starts, 3.44 ERA. 220 IP. 84 ER

Richards...31 Starts, 3.78 ERA. 186 IP. 78 ER

Santiago... 30 Starts, 3.59 ERA. 178 IP. 71 ER.

Skaggs... 28 Starts, 4.37 ERA. 167 IP. 81 ER.

Shoemaker...5 Starts 4.67 ERA. 27 IP. 14 ER

Grubbe... 1 Start. 5.4 ERA. 5 IP, 4 ER.

Blanton... 1 Start. 9 ERA. 5 IP. 5 ER.

162 GS. 988 IP. 407 ER. 3.71 ERA

BP: 462 IP. 177 ER. 3.46 ERA.

Edited March 15, 2014 by Hubs

[Jay]

[nate]

Nate you've been pretty bitter about the team lately. You actually think that the A's AAA rotation will be better than Weaver, Wilson, Santiago, Richards and Skaggs?

 

Little bit of sarcasm but the A's are seriously deep.  I bet Sacramento's starting five will be better than a lot of teams.  Weaver and Wilson are very good, but the other three are question marks.  It will take this org years to recover from all of the pitchers that have been traded away.

 

Short answer, no, I don't actually believe that.  I do have some serious concerns about this team, especially the pitching and all around depth.

[Docwaukee]

My projections:

Weaver.. 32 Starts, 3.11 ERA. 200 IP. 69 ER

Wilson... 34 Starts, 3.44 ERA. 220 IP. 84 ER

Richards...31 Starts, 3.78 ERA. 186 IP. 78 ER

Santiago... 30 Starts, 3.59 ERA. 178 IP. 71 ER.

Skaggs... 28 Starts, 4.37 ERA. 167 IP. 81 ER.

Shoemaker...5 Starts 4.67 ERA. 27 IP. 14 ER

Grubbe... 1 Start. 5.4 ERA. 5 IP, 4 ER.

Blanton... 1 Start. 9 ERA. 5 IP. 5 ER.

162 GS. 988 IP. 407 ER. 3.71 ERA

BP: 462 IP. 177 ER. 3.46 ERA.

that's pretty aggressive.  Would have made us 3rd in the league last year.  I'll settle for middle of the pack.

 

last year, their team ERA was 4.24 and they had about 50 unearned runs.  Avg # of innings is about 1450 (extras cancelled out by not having to pitch the ninth)

If they can drop their ERA to 4.0 then they will allow about 644 runs.  That would put them around middle to slightly below.   If the D improves a bit and they only allow 40 unearned runs they end up allowing around 685 runs.  If they score 100 runs more than that, that puts them around 92 wins.  I think this is a reasonable estimate. 

 

In 2012 when they won 89 games, they scored around 770 and gave up 700. 

 

I still don't like the pitching depth as it's setting them up to fade hard in Aug/Sept, but it's a good team with a real chance. 

[disarcina]

Here's the deal with this -- We must win the early season series against Oakland and take advantage of their rotation short situation........

 

if we can't do that -- well, it's a precursor to what's going to happen the rest of the way.........

 

also -- we really need to win a majority, if not ALL, of the Houston series this year.

 

Oakland was something like 15-3 against Houston and Texas was about the same or maybe 14-4 (I think Houston won two games in the last series and games of the season).

 

Meanwhile what were we?  8-10 vs. them -- something like that -- might have been 7-11.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

Here's the deal with this -- We must win the early season series against Oakland and take advantage of their rotation short situation........

if we can't do that -- well, it's a precursor to what's going to happen the rest of the way.........

also -- we really need to win a majority, if not ALL, of the Houston series this year.

Oakland was something like 15-3 against Houston and Texas was about the same or maybe 14-4 (I think Houston won two games in the last series and games of the season).

Meanwhile what were we? 8-10 vs. them -- something like that -- might have been 7-11.

9-10 vs Houston, 1-5 vs Minn, 4-15 vs Texas, 8-11 vs Oakland.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2013-schedule-scores.shtml

Edited March 16, 2014 by AngelsAndRamsFan

[Stradling]

Little bit of sarcasm but the A's are seriously deep. I bet Sacramento's starting five will be better than a lot of teams. Weaver and Wilson are very good, but the other three are question marks. It will take this org years to recover from all of the pitchers that have been traded away.

Short answer, no, I don't actually believe that. I do have some serious concerns about this team, especially the pitching and all around depth.

I agree with the depth concerns, but I really am only worried about the depth of the starting staff.

[NrM]

So the A's have lost their 3 best pitchers from last year if you include colon.

Somehow I bet they'll find some random pitchers from the minors that end up doing great on the major league team.

Edited March 16, 2014 by Poozy

[Mark68]

9-10 vs Houston, 1-5 vs Minn, 4-15 vs Texas, 8-11 vs Oakland.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2013-schedule-scores.shtml

That's crazy. We were 1-5 vs the Twinkies and 6-0 vs the Tiggers. Baseball is weird.

[Mark68]

So the A's have lost their 3 best pitchers from last year if you include colon.

Somehow I bet they'll find some random pitchers from the minors that end up doing great on the major league team.

You could say that Gray was their best pitcher not named Colon last year. He's still around.

[YouthofToday]

Losing Parker for the season would be a very big deal, potentially costing them at least 4 wins.

At this point I doubt a team in the AL West wins more than 91 games.

If we can get 60 healthy starts out of Weaver/Wilson this team should be taken lightly.

[Hubs]

that's pretty aggressive.  Would have made us 3rd in the league last year.  I'll settle for middle of the pack.

 

last year, their team ERA was 4.24 and they had about 50 unearned runs.  Avg # of innings is about 1450 (extras cancelled out by not having to pitch the ninth)

If they can drop their ERA to 4.0 then they will allow about 644 runs.  That would put them around middle to slightly below.   If the D improves a bit and they only allow 40 unearned runs they end up allowing around 685 runs.  If they score 100 runs more than that, that puts them around 92 wins.  I think this is a reasonable estimate. 

 

In 2012 when they won 89 games, they scored around 770 and gave up 700. 

 

I still don't like the pitching depth as it's setting them up to fade hard in Aug/Sept, but it's a good team with a real chance. 

 

Originally I had the pen way higher, at 180 runs. That's a 3.9 ERA for the pen. If you add 34 runs to the rotation, say bringing Weaver up to 3.38 (75 runs), Wilson up to 3.68 (90 runs), Richards up to 4.26 (88 runs), Santiago also up to 4.25 (84 runs), and Skaggs up to 4.74 (88 runs), You'd be at 464 earned runs.

 

Add that to the 180 from the revised pen and you're at 644. Add that to say 41 unearned runs, and you're at 685 runs. Which is the worst I see the staff doing.

 

Using the sabremetrics pythagorean formula, in order to win 90 games, if they allow 685….They'd need to score 770. Even at the worst, I see that happening.  They scored 733 last season with zero production from 3rd, a replacement level player in the OF, subpar defense, subpar production from Hamilton and Pujols, and a DH who hit .233. 

 

The Red Sox scored 850 runs last season…that's what I'm expecting from the Angels this year. And with 685 runs allowed, they'd win 97 games.

 

The A's will be lucky to score 750 runs, and without Parker for the season, plus the loss of another starter in Griffin for who knows how long, they'll be lucky to only allow 650 runs. That equates to 91 wins. Even with their other young starters and superior pen. 

 

The Rangers I think will allow over 720 runs and score less than 800… which is high 80's wins.