Another "Kiss of Death" article....

[Inside Pitch]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-summary-of-the-positional-power-rankings-data/

 

Fangraphs recently ranked/rated the position players -- they posted their summary today adjusted for park effects and had the following to say about the Angels potential line-up.

 

"Beyond just that calculation error, there are some other interesting things to be gleaned from the results. For instance, holy crap the Angels line-up. . They probably won’t actually end up with +35 WAR from their position players — it’s easier to underperform than overperform projections due primarily to injuries — but the gap between their starting nine and everyone else’s starting nine still stands out."

[tdawg87]

And then there's the pitching staff.

[DropOfAnaheim]

Yankees pitching has been anything but lights out the last 2 seasons, and they were playoff bound. Don't write off this lineup's ability to overcome our mediocre starting 3 through 5. I am scared of the A's, because unlike the Angels they breed good pitchers like no one else. The A's preach patience at the plate, and Cespedas will be in the hunt for MVP this year.

[Hubs]

Here's my question though. With Park Adjustments, they are projecting the following:

 

C: 3 WAR

1B: 4 WAR

2B: 3 WAR

SS: 3 WAR

3B: 2 WAR

LF: 5 WAR

CF: 5 WAR

RF: 4 WAR

DH: 2 WAR

 

Here's where the Angels were last year. Note that I'm using primary positions here, not WAR for each player based on where he played.

 

C: 1.7 WAR (Iannetta, Wilson, Conger, Hester) I'm comfortable with the 1.3 WAR increase as Iannetta's health and Conger's offense should get them there. Okay with projection.

 

1B: 4.6 WAR (Pujols). They're projecting a slight regression, I think Pujols is going to put up great numbers. I'd expect them to get 6 WAR from first, not 4. +2 WAR over projection

 

2B: 2.8 WAR (Kendrick, Izturis) Pretty close to what they did last year, but Kendrick has a tough year, in 2011, he was a 4.2 WAR player. +1 WAR over projection.

 

SS: 4.1 WAR (Aybar, Romine) I don't expect a significant regression for Aybar. +1 WAR over progression, assuming Romine hits at replacement level.

 

3B: 3.2 WAR (Callaspo). I agree with the -1 WAR from last year. Okay.

 

LF: 2.7 WAR (Trumbo, Wells, Abreu) A new left fielder, who may be the best player in baseball. It's going to be hard to get 10 WAR from a left fielder, but 5 WAR from Trout? I doubt he slumps. . Whenever Wells or Trumbo plays here, it's going to drop the overall numbers from left from Trout's expectations, but assuming he's playing CF, they'll get it back. I'd say 8-9 is a good expectation. +4 WAR over projection

 

CF: 11.8 WAR (Trout, Bourjos) They project 5 WAR here, but I am thinking they think Trout gets time here. Bourjos played to a 4.2 WAR last time he played CF full time. I'm okay with the expectation or even willing to drop it to 4.

 

RF: 5.3 WAR (Hunter, Calhoun) Hamilton was only a 3.4 WAR player last year, which they are expecting a slight uptick. Hamilton has 8 WAR seasons on his resume, so maybe 4 is okay, or maybe he hits to 6. Okay for now… Hmmmm..

 

DH: 1.9 WAR (Morales) They are expecting 2, I'd expect Trumbo to at least put up similar numbers to Morales last season.

 

Moving Trumbo to DH, Trout to LF, Bourjos to fulltime CF, trading Hamilton for Torrii puts a different team on the field. But I think they're going to push the number up closer to 40. They had 37.9 position player WAR last year, so that's not out of the realm of possibility. Assuming a replacement level team actually wins about 33% of its games at 53 wins or so, that's a 93 win team with replacement level pitchers, and despite what they say about our staff, 2012 only was a 2.6 WAR staff, total. They won't be worse than that, and the 2011 staff had a 14 WAR. Somewhere in between projects the team to win 100 games plus.

 

Of course, that's why they play the games.

[tdawg87]

Yankees pitching has been anything but lights out the last 2 seasons, and they were playoff bound. Don't write off this lineup's ability to overcome our mediocre starting 3 through 5. I am scared of the A's, because unlike the Angels they breed good pitchers like no one else. The A's preach patience at the plate, and Cespedas will be in the hunt for MVP this year.

 

The Yankees had the 5th best ERA in the AL last year at 3.85. They also had a better offense.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

The Yankees had the 5th best ERA in the AL last year at 3.85. They also had a better offense.

 

They also had 51 saves to our 38, despite losing Mariano Rivera for the season early on. They had nine fewer blown saves (13 to our 22).