Weaver article about his declining velocity

[vlad27]

If I remember correctly, Greg Maddux's velocity started dropping around Weaver's age and while his very best years were between age 26-32, Maddux remained a very good pitcher for a few more years and a good pitcher until he retired at age 42.

Now Weaver is no Greg Maddux, but he's a similar type of pitcher who relies on command, control, and factors other than velocity. We're probably never going to see another 2010-11 (his best seasons according to WAR, 5.7 each year), but I don't see why he can remain a #2-3 pitcher for half a decade or so.

agreed he is still going to be very good for a while

[Hollyw00d]

he just needs to stay healthy, dude knows how to pitch.

[markb]

 Sure, he could finish in the top 3 again - he did just in 2012, although probably didn't deserve to and only did so because of his gaudy 20 wins. 

 

He led the league in WHIP as well.  It is a bit unusual for someone who missed a few starts and didn't hit 200 IP to finish that high.  

 

I guess I'm really confused about why people are actually projecting Weaver to have a mid 3's ERA.  His velocity was a constant talking point in every start after coming off the DL, yet in the second half last year he put up a 2.99 ERA and 1.076 WHIP.  If the argument is simply "well he's a year older now" I have trouble buying that given how consistent he's been for the last 4 years.  

[Hubs]

He led the league in WHIP as well.  It is a bit unusual for someone who missed a few starts and didn't hit 200 IP to finish that high.  

 

I guess I'm really confused about why people are actually projecting Weaver to have a mid 3's ERA.  His velocity was a constant talking point in every start after coming off the DL, yet in the second half last year he put up a 2.99 ERA and 1.076 WHIP.  If the argument is simply "well he's a year older now" I have trouble buying that given how consistent he's been for the last 4 years.  

 

Exactly… Last year was his career average, though the previous three years were all under 3.01. In 2010, he struck out a career high, and his SO/9 declined every year after that, to right around his career average.

 

He's going to be a 6.5-7.5 SO/9 which puts him around 150-170 strikeouts in 33 or 34 starts. He's not going to walk people as his BB/9 is consistent at 2.2 throughout his career.

 

He had three bad starts last year out of 24. 1) The Second game of the season where he was knocked out by the ball off his elbow, Lowe came up and gave up the one inherited runner. Two HR in this game. 2) The June 16th game against the Yankees when he gave up 5 runs in the third inning. Threw five other scoreless ones. 3) The August 17th game against the Yankees. Two HR to Soriano in that game, one a Grand Slam. 

 

Total of those three starts? 16 IP, 19ER. A 10.69 ERA. 

 

Total of the other 21 starts, of which 17 were QS? 135.1 IP, 37 ER. A 2.46 ERA. 

 

He's fine. 

[Glen]

Weaver's contract keeps looking better and better.  He's gonna be a solid pitcher for the next few years and then probably tail off after that.  

[Ohtaniland]

Weaver's contract keeps looking better and better. He's gonna be a solid pitcher for the next few years and then probably tail off after that.

Thanks to Tony Reagins. 😏

[T.G.]

Hamiltown - by citing Jeff declining velocity you're implying that Jered's career will have a similar fate and that's just wrong. You know better.  You know that velocity is only one component of pitching and to focus on that; especially with a pitcher like Jered is just flawed.

[Ohtaniland]

Hamiltown - by citing Jeff declining velocity you're implying that Jered's career will have a similar fate and that's just wrong. You know better. You know that velocity is only one component of pitching and to focus on that; especially with a pitcher like Jered is just flawed.

I based it on genetics, similar deliveries, similar loss in velocity, innings pitched, a sharp drop in K's and the fact that Jered has had to toy with his arm angle leads me to believe that he's starting to show some huge wear and tear.

[Rochambeau]

Weav has gotta hate this line from the article:

Weaver is the Richard Simmons of pitchers, evermore stuck in the 80s.

[Make Angels Great Again]

I based it on genetics, similar deliveries, similar loss in velocity, innings pitched, a sharp drop in K's and the fact that Jered has had to toy with his arm angle leads me to believe that he's starting to show some huge wear and tear.

 

 

I'm gonna go ahead and base my prediction that Jered will not have a Jeff Weaver type rest of his career based on the fact that Jeff sucked for just about his entire career, while Jered has been an ace for years.

[T.G.]

I based it on genetics, similar deliveries, similar loss in velocity, innings pitched, a sharp drop in K's and the fact that Jered has had to toy with his arm angle leads me to believe that he's starting to show some huge wear and tear.

 

Jered has shown his ability to adapt... Jeff didn't for the most part.  Jered already has more K's in his career 1,236 in just 8 seasons compared to Jeff's 1,214 in his 13 year career. They are not that similar.  Career WHIP for Jeff - 1.367. For Jered - 1.143.  If they have similar genetics, similar deliveries, etc. - how come their results are so different?  Jered'd K/9 innings have been exactly the same the last two seasons.  Last year his WHIP and BB/9 were below his career average.  Sure, he's going to regress some, everyone does - but he's not in the same discussion as Jeff.

[ukyah]

I'm gonna go ahead and base my prediction that Jered will not have a Jeff Weaver type rest of his career based on the fact that Jeff sucked for just about his entire career, while Jered has been an ace for years.

 

 

jeesus thank you, i've been reading this thread waiting to see if anyone was going to say what i was thinking. regarding jeff weaver vs. jered weaver career similarities, i have only this in reply:

 

[tdawg87]

Whilst I agree Jered won't fade like his brother, Jeff was actually a pretty solid pitcher with Detroit. Not Jered good, but certainly not bad.