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Weaver article about his declining velocity


Docwaukee

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Last season, his average fastball velocity of 86.5 mph ranked 94th of 96 pitchers with at least 150 innings. The two behind him were soft-tossing left-hander Mark Buehrle and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

 

Geez didn't know his velocity was that bad.

The days of Weaver being a dominant pitcher is over.

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Kind of explains why we didn't chase the back end of the free agent market this year.  We will need to find a number one or two sometime in the next couple of years for sure.  Next year might be the better time to find such a pitcher.

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to this article's point, he was never an overpowering pitcher, so losing a few MPH off his fastball doesn't mean he can't still be dominant.  However, it makes the need for pinpoint control that much greater.  On days he doesn't have great command, he's that much more likely to get knocked around.

 

I think we'll still see plenty of great games by Weaver, but I also think we'll see a slightly greater frequency of games where he gets hit hard. In truth he's probably a #1A/2 SP now.

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to this article's point, he was never an overpowering pitcher, so losing a few MPH off his fastball doesn't mean he can't still be dominant.  However, it makes the need for pinpoint control that much greater.  On days he doesn't have great command, he's that much more likely to get knocked around.

 

I think we'll still see plenty of great games by Weaver, but I also think we'll see a slightly greater frequency of games where he gets hit hard. In truth he's probably a #1A/2 SP now.

There were times early in his career where he would hit 94 and 95, but normally in the low 90's. He did touch 90 and a very few occasions last season, but yeah - his velocity is certainly down quite a bit.

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If I remember correctly, Greg Maddux's velocity started dropping around Weaver's age and while his very best years were between age 26-32, Maddux remained a very good pitcher for a few more years and a good pitcher until he retired at age 42.

 

Now Weaver is no Greg Maddux, but he's a similar type of pitcher who relies on command, control, and factors other than velocity. We're probably never going to see another 2010-11 (his best seasons according to WAR, 5.7 each year), but I don't see why he can remain a #2-3 pitcher for half a decade or so.

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Another thing about Weaver is that he's one of those players whose value is not accurately represented by WAR. RA9-WAR is a better indicator (and better for pitchers, in my opinion) because it bases WAR on Runs Allowed and doesn't emphasize peripherals (K and BB rate) as much as results (ERA). WAR is great for position players but bad for pitchers, in my opinion, because it over-privileges a certain type of pitcher and makes craftsmen like Weaver and Glavine look worse then they actually are.

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His brother Jeff fell apart around the same amount of innings pitched and they have a similar delivery.

fair point. And im one of the more pessimistic ones regarding weaver (though I think he'll gradually decline to a mid rotation and finally number 5, not fall off a cliff any time soon).

But in regards to his brother, he was a lot more of a fireballer. Jered was never a blow it by kind of pitcher, he's been more of a control guy the last few years.

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i'll start knocking on weaver when his results are no longer there after consecutive seasons, but until then homeboy gets the benefit of any doubt.

 

when it comes to pitching it's all about results, if the team wins when he pitches, then i'm cool.

Edited by ukyah
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Jeff was never very good to begin with, so the comparison doesn't seem relevant.

 

Well Jeff Weaver's velocity also dipped after he hit 30. He's not Jered Weaver but their loss in velocity parallel each other.    

 
 
 
By Mike Axisa [september 7, 2010 at 9:38pm CST]

Jeff Weaver told Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times that he wants to pitch at least one more season, and would prefer to do so with the Dodgers (Twitter link). The 34-year-old has spent the last two seasons with the team, his second stint in Chavez Ravine. 

Working exclusively in relief, Weaver's posted unimpressive totals of 5.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 to go along with his 4.99 ERA in 39.2 innings this year. He was much more effective in 2008, when he compiled a 3.65 ERA on the strength of 7.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 79 innings as a swingman. It's worth noting that his fastball velocity has dipped quite a bit over the last few seasons.

Weaver has had to settle for minor league contracts in each of the last three offseasons, and there's no reason to expect that to change next year. He will earn $800K total in 2010, though his career earnings top $40MM.

Edited by Hamiltown
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He still managed to pitch well last year despite topping out at like 88 on his fastball. How hard you throw doesn't mean too much. Just ask Edwin Jackson.

 

Come now, this is an over-exaggeration, isn't it? Of course how hard you throw means something, quite a lot really. It just doesn't mean everything.

 

This thread is hillarious.  Watch him finish Top 3 in Cy Young voting this year.

 

"Hes not an ace anymore."  You numbnuts are funny.

 

The writing's on the wall, QuinlansMinion. Sure, he could finish in the top 3 again - he did just in 2012, although probably didn't deserve to and only did so because of his gaudy 20 wins. But the simple fact of the matter is that Jered Weaver has not been the same pitcher in 2012-13 as he was in 2010-11, and chances are he'll be more like the last two years in 2014 than the two years prior. Still a very good pitcher, of course - but just not one of the best in the league like he was in 2010-11.

 

According to fWAR, Weaver is #53 in the majors over the last two years, tied with Jose Quintana and Justin Masterson - and just below CJ Wilson. As I said above, I prefer RA9-WAR, but even then he's #17 - right between Bartolo Colon and RA Dickey - much better, but perhaps not a true ace.

 

In 2014, I'm guessing that Weaver has an ERA in the 3.00-3.50 range, a 3-4 WAR, and a RA9-WAR in the 4-5 range. That makes him a top 20 pitcher, but not top 10 and certainly not a real Cy Young candidate.

Edited by Angelsjunky
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To be honest the most important thing is Weaver to be effective for more than 200 innings this year. He doesn't have to be an ace anymore.

This team, with question marks on how many IP folks after Weav and CJ can really provide, absolutely need Weav and CJ to combine for 400 effective innings.

We do need ace like production if we make the playoffs though...

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