Stolen Bases

[Hubs]

Interesting Read from Yahoo, mainly about prospect Billy Hamilton.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/why-baseball-abandoning-stolen-104000000.html

 

Angels stole 134 in 2012, 135 in 2011. 

 

Could the Angels could lead the league in steals in 2013?…something you'd think they'd have done recently, but they haven't led the AL since 2006.

 

They had 148 that year, which included 52 from Chone Figgins, 27 from Orlando Cabrera, Kennedy had 16, Guerrero had 15, and Izturis had 14.

 

They had quite a few slow pokes on that team in Mike Napoli, Tim Salmon, Juan Rivera, Jose Molina, Kendrys Morales, but by having good stolen base years from the five above, they led the league in steals.

 

I think Trout should be able to echo Figgins number or improve on that. Hopefully Aybar can give you what Cabrera did and Bourjos could do the same. Kendrick will be able to give you what Kennedy did, and they have quite a few players that could give you 4-8 SB…like Pujols, Trumbo, Hamilton, Romine, Wells. 

 

I'd hope that 9-1-2 of Bourjos, Trout, & Aybar can give them 125. That's going to really contribute to the success of the Angels going forward. Add in 15 or so from Kendrick, then 25 combined from Pujols (8 in 2012), Trumbo (5 or 6), Hamilton (8), and Callaspo (3 or 4) plus whatever Wells gives you (5-8) and other bench guys like Romine (6-7), Young (2-7), Calhoun (2-3?), Rodriguez (1-2), Conger(0-1), Iannetta (0-1), and Snyder (0-1)...

 

I think the Angels can steal 180 bases in 2013. Which would put them well ahead of the league leader in 2012, the Brewers, or the AL Leader, the Twins at 135.

 

 

[Jason]

Bourjos has the speed just not the ability to steal yet. If he figures it out, then look out!

[HaloFan85]

Bourjos has the speed and ability.  He just needs the green light and to be a little more aggressive when given.

[gotbeer]

It'll be interesting if Billy Hamilton makes the MLB roster for the Reds.  And if he does, how many steals he does get.  155 in one season of the minors with 249 Hits+BB's is just nuts.  Just to put it in perspective.  Trout in 4 years in the minors (1,117 AB's) had 108 SB's.  

[jshep]

Hamilton was already sent down.

I'm guessing he starts 4014 as their CF though

[angelduck]

Stolen bases are overrated

[Halos of Anaheim]

Hamilton was already sent down.

I'm guessing he starts 4014 as their CF though

Lulz

[Jason]

Bourjos has the speed and ability. He just needs the green light and to be a little more aggressive when given.

If he is good at stealing then why aren't they giving him the green light? We all know Scioscia loves to run as much as he can. I don't think Bourjos reads the pitcher very well and that may be the reason.

[Stradling]

Stolen bases are overrated

How so? 

[AZMike]

If he is good at stealing then why aren't they giving him the green light? We all know Scioscia loves to run as much as he can. I don't think Bourjos reads the pitcher very well and that may be the reason.

 

Last year he was not given green light for most steals out of caution from aggravating a hand injury I believe 

[jshep]

Lulz

Damn iPhone keyboard and fat fingers.

By 4014 Billy Hamilton will already be remembered as the guy with the most steals in Major League Baseball as well as in Moon Baseball.

[Wallerrrr]

Stolen bases are overrated

 

How so? 

 

consider the source

[Bruce Nye]

There's a new theory about SBs - some of the stat meisters have calculated the risk factor with SBs.  They believe the SBs are not worth the risk.  They argue because someone is on base it is less risky to have him try to steal, instead put pressure on the pitching and defense to prevent the runner from scoring.  The extra base is not that important.

 

My view is when you have someone with Trout's talent than can not only steal 2b but 3b, it is a worthy risk.  

[Glen]

There's a new theory about SBs - some of the stat meisters have calculated the risk factor with SBs.  They believe the SBs are not worth the risk.  They argue because someone is on base it is less risky to have him try to steal, instead put pressure on the pitching and defense to prevent the runner from scoring.  The extra base is not that important.

 

My view is when you have someone with Trout's talent than can not only steal 2b but 3b, it is a worthy risk.  

 

 

I understand that view but disagree with it (somewhat), the top part.  A runner on 1B presents a chance for the dreaded GIDP.  A runner on 2B doesn't.  I think that might be worth the risk.

[Pbonetheman]

I understand that view but disagree with it (somewhat), the top part.  A runner on 1B presents a chance for the dreaded GIDP.  A runner on 2B doesn't.  I think that might be worth the risk.

 

Plus a single can knock most guys in from second, so there is added pressure there. 

[AZMike]

There's a new theory about SBs - some of the stat meisters have calculated the risk factor with SBs.  They believe the SBs are not worth the risk.  They argue because someone is on base it is less risky to have him try to steal, instead put pressure on the pitching and defense to prevent the runner from scoring.  The extra base is not that important.

 

My view is when you have someone with Trout's talent than can not only steal 2b but 3b, it is a worthy risk.  

Awesome. Sabermetrics proves that Conger = starting catcher. He doesn't even need to try to throw the runner out since steals don't matter

 

I understand that view but disagree with it (somewhat), the top part.  A runner on 1B presents a chance for the drdeaded GIDP.  A runner on 2B doesn't.  I think that might be worth the risk.

 

Plus a single can knock most guys in from second, so there is added pressure there. 

 

Stealing second to avoid the GIDP simply "takes the bat out of the hands" of whoever is batting. Pitcher can walk him and setup up the GIDP and the force at 3rd or home.

 

Let's say Bourjos reaches base on a one-out single. Trout singles, Bourjos to 3B. Trout steals 2nd. All that accomplishes is taking the bat out of Callapso's hands

[Jason]

Plus stealing or attempting to steal puts added pressure on both the defense and the pitcher.

[Glen]

Awesome. Sabermetrics proves that Conger = starting catcher. He doesn't even need to try to throw the runner out since steals don't matter

 

 

 

Stealing second to avoid the GIDP simply "takes the bat out of the hands" of whoever is batting. Pitcher can walk him and setup up the GIDP and the force at 3rd or home.

 

Let's say Bourjos reaches base on a one-out single. Trout singles, Bourjos to 3B. Trout steals 2nd. All that accomplishes is taking the bat out of Callapso's hands

 

 

How so?  They're not gonna walk Callaspo to get to Pujols, and thereby load the bases. 

[AZMike]

How so?  They're not gonna walk Callaspo to get to Pujols, and thereby load the bases. 

 

but... my attempt at playing devil's advocate isn't working out too well

[Bashbrothers]

Stealing is only worth it if you can steal successfully 80 percent of the time.  Anything lower hurts your team.  

[angelduck]

Bruce is right. With a smart and fast baserunner like Trout, you let him steal. With these average base stealers (Bourjos) you should stay on first and make the pitcher get out of the inning by pitching - not worth the risk most times. It has been proven that if a runner doesn't have over a 75% success rate of stealing bases, he is in fact costing his team runs. Trout was like over 90% last year I think, so no one should be mad with him running. 

[angelduck]

Here's a nice article on some former WS winners that shows how over-valued this Mike Scioscia small ball thing is. BTW, we did not play very much small ball in 2002, so I don't know why Sicoscia became obsessed  with it from 2003-2011.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2006/4/8/113847/6122

 

 

Gives some nice stats

[AngelsLakersFan]

There's a new theory about SBs - some of the stat meisters have calculated the risk factor with SBs.  They believe the SBs are not worth the risk.  They argue because someone is on base it is less risky to have him try to steal, instead put pressure on the pitching and defense to prevent the runner from scoring.  The extra base is not that important.

 

My view is when you have someone with Trout's talent than can not only steal 2b but 3b, it is a worthy risk.  

 

Before we can determine whether or not stolen bases are 'overrated' we must come up with a determination of exactly how people are rating stolen bases...

 

A steal increases a player's chance of scoring around +20%, as in from around 40% to 60% (depending on the base / out scenario).

 

Now these 'new' theories were derived near the height of the offensive era. It is important to realize that as average run scoring goes UP the value of each base goes DOWN, and the value of simply not making an out increases. Think of if this way, if a team had a near 1.000 OBP there would be no difference in the value of different types of hits. The only value is in not making an out, there would be no point in attempting a steal.

 

The last couple of seasons have seen dramatic declines in offense, to the point of being among some of the more pitcher friendly eras of all time. As offense decreases the value of each base increases. Steals are more valuable than ever, and the downside of being thrown out is minimized,

 

At the height of the offensive era the break even point on steal attempts was around >70%, I haven't seen any research on it today but I would wager that it is closer to >60% now.

[Wallerrrr]

Bruce is right. With a smart and fast baserunner like Trout, you let him steal. With these average base stealers (Bourjos) you should stay on first and make the pitcher get out of the inning by pitching - not worth the risk most times. It has been proven that if a runner doesn't have over a 75% success rate of stealing bases, he is in fact costing his team runs. Trout was like over 90% last year I think, so no one should be mad with him running. 

so your argument isnt that stolen bases are overrated anymore, its that its not worth the risk trying to steal if you are sh*tty at stealing bases?

[Inside Pitch]

Stealing is only worth it if you can steal successfully 80 percent of the time.  Anything lower hurts your team.  

 

The 80% number is not correct and it continues to drop.  

 

The actual break-even point according to most of the hardcore data was right around 68-69%, and that number tended to drop depending on the situation. Even the biggest detractors like Joe Sheehan and Mike Wolverton (who at one time wrote what many considered to be the definitive study on SBs), have come around recently as the value of getting an extra base has increased as power/offense has become harder to obtain.  Look no further than how often the A's try to steal bases now compared to the early 2000s.

 

Ultimately, it's the usage that's always been the rub.   Risk Vs Reward.   As the risk rises, so does that break-even point.