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Angels to lose 90 games?


Chimi

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For the Angels to win 90 games:

 

Pujols and Hamilton need to bounce back and have very good seasons.

Starters #3,4,5 need to be decent, at least, while Weaver and Wilson need to shine.

Bullpen needs to be very solid.

Calhoun, Freese, Aybar, and Kendrick need to hit well.

Trout just needs to be Trout.

The team needs to play good fundamental baseball, which includes baserunning. No more ridiculous outs on the bases.

 

If all these things happen, 90 wins is almost a given.

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I think they'll fall somewhere between 80-90 wins. I think 90 losses is possible, but not that realistic. Just like I think more than 90 wins is possible, but not that realistic.

 

Mediocrity, thy name is Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

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The beauty of baseball is that anything can happen once the games start.  I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see this team win only 75 games, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see it win 95 games.  Like every single team in baseball, we have question marks.

 

Anything can happen.  Just as the 2012 and 2013 Red Sox. 

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Of course it's possible, but I think 90 wins is far more likely. A lot of stuff went wrong last year and they weren't that close to 90 losses.

thats my take. I really dont see how the SP can be worse (though I worry the front two are due to begin their slow decline). The bullpen should be better, and the offense should be the same.

Weavers broken arm (in the first week), burnetts elbow (after a handful of appearances), vargas' blood clot, pujols' foot, hamiltons..stage fright I guess you could call it, were not only devastating, but also horrible luck. Yeah, good teams overcome adversity. But even good teams would have struggled with that. Look how bad the dodgers were losing grienke and hanley in the first half. It was a perfect storm.

I really wanted to keep vargas, and am worried about the SP. That said, if we get just average pitching from the SP (meaning better than last year but not great), and guys like pujols, hamilton and freese are just decent (.270/20/80 using bubblegum stats), that will be a huge step up from last year (IMO).

I see the pitching being roughly 2012'ish (pre grienke, same CJ), with two of the youngsters essentially being the same or slightly better than haren and santana that year. Wishful thinking maybe, but I think the bullpen will be better than 12. Mix that with an above average (to 'good' offense), and I think we at least push for a wild card spot.

And thats with not expecting much at all from ibanez.

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This is a ridiculous prediction. 

 

The Angels were bad last year offensively, defensively, and pitching. They were hurt. They relied on two veteran starters who hadn't done well the previous year, and they needed them badly to succeed and when they flopped, it dragged the whole staff down..Don't forget they also had two of their top three starters miss six weeks with injuries.

 

They added BP depth in Smith, Salas, and Burnett. They added two young starters who hopefully can give you 25 starts and a 4.00 ERA (2.5 runs per start in 5 2/3 innings average = 135 runs combined) . Add that to Garrett Richards at 33 starts at a 3.8 ERA (2.8 runs per start = 92 runs allowed), plus Wilson at a 3.6 ERA (2.6 runs per start = 87 runs allowed) and Weaver at a 3.3 ERA over 33 starts each (2.4 runs per start = 80 runs allowed), that only leaves 13 starts for other starters, which even if they allow 5 runs a start, is still ok. I want 950-1000 innngs from the starters at least, and if they do that at an ERA around 4 they'll have given up 460 runs in 1,008 innings. Last year the starters pitched to a 4.3 ERA in 964 innings which was 461 earned runs. I'm expecting a marginal improvement.

 

If the pen can pitch to a 3.8 ERA, then you're at 650 earned runs on the season. Even if you add in 50 unearned runs, which is what they had last year, that's still around 700 runs. That's not a great staff, with a staff ERA around 4.03.

 

This year's team will score 800 runs and if they allow around 700 that is still a 91 win team.

 

I expect them to score more than 800 and allow less than the above. If they did 850 and 650, the expected record would be 100 wins. 

 

It's all about the offense. The pitching staff is not going to be as bad as the 2000 or 2003 staff. Butcher's teams although everyone thinks they suck have only had significant depth in 2012, and that year everyone disappointed. With a rotation of Weaver, Haren, Santana, Pineiro, Chatwood, and some fill-in's in 2011 the team gave up 633 runs. As they scored only 667 they only managed a win total in the mid 80's.

Edited by Hubs
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90 losses -- don't think so unless Blanton starts 30 games or something --

 

I put our win total at 84/85 but if Blanton is in the rotation to start the season, I'd adjust my prediction to 74/ 75 wins.

 

at least it's over .500 ball -- more than we can say for last year.

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