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Ron Washington, Mike Scioscia, and the bunt


Glen

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giving away outs is generally not a good idea.  as has been previously posted, the # of runs scored on average is higher with a man of first and no outs than a man on second with one out.  I have never been able to find whether sacrificing a guy to 2b increase your chance of scoring one run but I think it may.  So unless you are bunting for a hit or you are late in the game, tied or down by a run, and the guy on first can't steal a bag, and the hitter isn't very good at hitting but good at bunting, bunting is a bad idea.  

 

the halos had the 4th highest number of PA in the AL where a bunt was put into play at 91.  They had 22 hits and 37 sacrifices.  So they were 22/91 or .240 in not bunting for an out regardless of whether it moved a runner.  

 

They sacrificed 20 times with a man on just first, 14 times with first and 2nd, and 3 times with a man on second.  

They had 1191 PA with a man on at least 1st and less than 2 out, and laid down a successful sacrifice 34 times in those situations.  

They were within 1 run for 25 of those successful sacrifices. 

18 Sacrifices came in inning 7 or later.

 

So they made 54 outs bunting.  37 of which moved a runner or two over.  

 

The halos scored 628 times in 2772pa with runners on.  I am not going to take the time to calculate the numbers of runs they could have scored if they had swung away in those 91pa instead of bunting as some of those bunts were hits and some moved runners into scoring position but even a rough estimate gives you maybe 4-5 runs.  And that doesn't take into account the actual situation where probably half of those bunts were at least reasonable ie pitcher up to bat, tie game or down by a run in the 7th or later with a not so good hitter at the plate.  

 

My guess is that there were probably about 20-30 inappropriate bunt attempts that cost us an out and decreased our odds of scoring multiple runs (not just one run because that is different).  

 

Point is, even though it's annoying and sometimes bad baseball, it doesn't really account for that many runs.  Probably not even half a win worth over the course of a season.  

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