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Homer Bailey gets 100 million


NrM

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Hasn't been anything special? 

 

He was one of the best 25 pitchers in baseball last year and was good the year before as well. He's got 2 no hitters under his belt and he's entering his age 28 season. 

 

He's a very good pitcher. 

 

He has 1 season with a 3 WAR or better and a career 96 ERA+

I don't know what stats you're looking at, but he hasn't been anything special at all. 

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It's dumb prices for anyone that's been in the league 4-5 years who is in their prime and gets a multi-year deal.

 

Try to find a bargain.

 

I know. It just amazed me the what the market value is with players. It just keeps on increasing.

Hopefully the luxury tax will stop it from going too much higher.

 

It's that much more important to have a great farm system, because teams wont be able to have the majority of your players coming via free agency, with the exception being the dodgers and yankees.

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He has 1 season with a 3 WAR or better and a career 96 ERA+

I don't know what stats you're looking at, but he hasn't been anything special at all.

He has improved in every year of his career. What he did in his first few seasons is irrelevant now.

The last 2 seasons he's been a really good pitcher and he's entering the part of his career where pitchers usually pitch their best.

If he were a few years older, I would agree with you. But being 28 makes this deal look much better.

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I know. It just amazed me the what the market value is with players. It just keeps on increasing.

Hopefully the luxury tax will stop it from going too much higher.

 

It's that much more important to have a great farm system, because teams wont be able to have the majority of your players coming via free agency, with the exception being the dodgers and yankees.

 

And that just goes back to having no cap.

 

Say everyone got a 85 mill payroll and the season will start in about a month and half (like now)...

 

How much do you think someone like Bailey would really get (assuming he's a free agent) a year?

 

I don't know... 5? 6? 7?

 

You're going to keep seeing these stupid contracts when you have no cap and 8-10 teams with basically unlimited payrolls.

Edited by DW711
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He's been improving over the last few years and is entering his prime years. I think his best years will be happening within this window of this extension

He's a good #3 and is still young. $16 mill a year sounds about right. The issue is with the length. Not a fan of anything over 5 years for a pitcher

So Tanaka is considered a #2/#3. Bailey is considered a #3 with possible room to improve considering how young he is and coming off the very solid year he had in 2013. Which is a better value? Tanaka at $175MM or Bailey at $100MM?

Frankly this was a smart move by the Reds to lock up a young, improving starting pitcher who at his worst is a #3 mid-rotation starter. He has upside for more.

This is the current state of the starting pitching market and it will only go up unless the entire baseball economy crashes. People should get used to this type of deal (and by the time they get used to this it will have increased again and they will be up in arms about the prices two years down the road).

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Bailey, while being a good pitcher, isnt worth $100M.  He just isnt.

 

From St. Louis newspaper:

 

performance of two starting pitchers over the past two seasons, 2012 and 2013:

 

Pitcher A

Age: turns 28 in May.

Innings: 417

Fielding independent ERA: 3.69

Strikeout rate: 21.3 percent

Walk rate: 6.2 percent

Quality starts: 41

Fangraphs wins above replacement: 6.2

Pitcher B

Age: turns 27 in May.

Innings: 370.2

Fielding independent ERA: 3.45

Strikeout rate: 23.8 percent

Walk rate: 8.8 percent

Quality starts: 35

Fangraphs wins above replacement: 6.0

Congratulations, Lance Lynn.

If Homer Bailey is going to get a six-year deal worth $100 million, that's very good news for Lynn.

Lynn (Pitcher B) has a similar profile to Bailey (Pitcher A).

Lynn is even better in some ways, including strikeout rate and adjusted ERA. And they are virtually even in WAR.

Edited by Hoops McCann
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Bailey has always been a scout favorite since his days in high school in Texas. Baseball people I've talked to never quite understood why he hasn't performed better. Perhaps he is slowly figuring it out and will only improve in the next few years.

 

 

he already has. he's become a really good pitcher. it's a classic arc of maturity and experience.

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  • 4 years later...
On 2/16/2014 at 9:57 PM, Brent Maguire said:

Hasn't been anything special? 

He was one of the best 25 pitchers in baseball last year and was good the year before as well. He's got 2 no hitters under his belt and he's entering his age 28 season. 

He's a very good pitcher. 

 

On 2/16/2014 at 10:30 PM, gotbeer said:

every year, for the last 6 years, his WHIP and ERA has improved.  I wouldn't have minded him on the Angels at all.  

 

On 2/17/2014 at 5:24 AM, bloodbrother said:

He's been improving over the last few years and is entering his prime years. I think his best years will be happening within this window of this extension

 

On 2/17/2014 at 8:38 AM, Brent Maguire said:

He has improved in every year of his career. What he did in his first few seasons is irrelevant now.

The last 2 seasons he's been a really good pitcher and he's entering the part of his career where pitchers usually pitch their best.

If he were a few years older, I would agree with you. But being 28 makes this deal look much better.

 

On 2/17/2014 at 11:20 AM, ettin said:

Frankly this was a smart move by the Reds to lock up a young, improving starting pitcher who at his worst is a #3 mid-rotation starter. He has upside for more.

 

On 2/17/2014 at 11:11 PM, YouthofToday said:

Bailey has always been a scout favorite since his days in high school in Texas. Baseball people I've talked to never quite understood why he hasn't performed better. Perhaps he is slowly figuring it out and will only improve in the next few years.

 

On 2/18/2014 at 7:07 AM, ukyah said:

he already has. he's become a really good pitcher. it's a classic arc of maturity and experience.

I agree.

(Because @Lou can't do it all)

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