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Kimbrel's Extension


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The Braves bought out the three arb years and one FA year with a contract worth an AAV of 11.7.  It is interesting to look at the three arb years at 7, 9 and 11 and the first FA year at 13 plus a 1mil signing bonus and compare it to Mariano Rivera in his prime where he saw three years at 10.5 and three years at 15.  As I have written before the closer position dollars are much different than Mike Trout as a position player but this continuing trend of fully valuing players very early is a challenge and a risk for the clubs.

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I'd agree there is some risk in these arbitration extension deals but I think it is fairly minimal for most teams in terms of total loss. In particular I think the reliever deals are more risky simply because of the high amount of stress that relievers put on their arms which leads to a higher injury risk.


However deals for starters and in particular position players generally are less risky and less cost impactful if something goes wrong.


The Kimbrel extension is less risky in the sense that they are paying for a high quality closer and they have the most up to date medical records so I have to think they really liked the cost-risk reward involved. On the flip side he puts a lot of stress on his arm so.....

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