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Hector Santiago


QuinlansMinion

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I think so. If you also take into account that he was pitching in homer-happy Chicago his numbers are even more impressive.

 

I would expect a little regression for his first full season, perhaps seeing his ERA jump to the 3.75-4.00 range, but ultimately I think he has the stuff to be a good middle of the rotation starter long term. Sort of like a poor man's CJ Wilson.

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Can someone explain why everyone expects to see such a huge regression with Santiago? He has put up pretty solid numbers over the last couple years, and he is moving to a more pitcher friendly park. Why are we expecting much more regression this year then he saw last year (his sophomore year).

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Can someone explain why everyone expects to see such a huge regression with Santiago? He has put up pretty solid numbers over the last couple years, and he is moving to a more pitcher friendly park. Why are we expecting much more regression this year then he saw last year (his sophomore year).

 

I wouldn't expect a "huge" regression. His FIP was just very high the last two years and his ERA didn't match up. Of course FIP is not a perfect stat and essentially "predicts" what a pitcher's ERA should be based on what the pitcher has control over (walks, strikeouts, homeruns). In other words, one could say that the defense behind Santiago helped keep his ERA down. With the Angels' defense being what it is, one could expect some regression in terms of ERA. I don't subscribe to the stat myself, but I do think it's a useful tool that can help tell a bigger story.

 

All that crap aside, it will be his first full season in the majors. It is likely he could experience some fatigue as the season goes on.

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It's basically using FIP and xFIP to make that determination. Like I said, I think those stats are useful tools, but you will also notice the blurb about Joe Blanton there, essentially making the stat somewhat unreliable. It could be that he ends up being a number 5, but he is still young and has the stuff to be a solid middle of the rotation guy.

 

And we as Angels fans shouldn't take stuff like FIP too seriously, especially since Jered Weaver is the poster child for greatly outperforming it (and Joe Blanton is the poster child for greatly underperforming it). Like I said it's a good tool and can be used to give a fair idea of the true nature of a pitcher, I just don't think it's the end-all be-all.

 

Also, the article says the 4.50 ERA is essentially "league average". That's worst case scenario, in my opinion, and in this rotation that is much better than a number 5.

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It's basically using FIP and xFIP to make that determination. Like I said, I think those stats are useful tools, but you will also notice the blurb about Joe Blanton there, essentially making the stat somewhat unreliable. It could be that he ends up being a number 5, but he is still young and has the stuff to be a solid middle of the rotation guy.

 

And we as Angels fans shouldn't take stuff like FIP too seriously, especially since Jered Weaver is the poster child for greatly outperforming it (and Joe Blanton is the poster child for greatly underperforming it). Like I said it's a good tool and can be used to give a fair idea of the true nature of a pitcher, I just don't think it's the end-all be-all.

 

Also, the article says the 4.50 ERA is essentially "league average". That's worst case scenario, in my opinion, and in this rotation that is much better than a number 5.

 

I'll take a guy who beats a high FIP over a guy with just a high FIP. Of course we need to understand that in the long run FIP is a better predictor of ERA than ERA itself - for most players - and Santiago does not have a very long track record. It's also important to consider that a lot of Santiago's innings have come in relief, which helps.

 

Moving out of Chicago and to Anaheim and the AL West should counter a lot of whatever regression we expect. There is also the upside that maybe he is a guy who can beat his FIP over the long haul... but I don't think we should count on that.

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4th starter at best..........more like a 5th..........perhaps even a long relief guy except it's the Halos rotation........

 

does any one think Jered Weaver is having second thoughts about signing that 'hometown' discount extension?

 

Halos should have gotten him some more rotation help than this -- oh well, Weaver does have a fairly offensive good line up behind him.......

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The author doesn't really explain anything. All he says is his peripherals don't match up to his ERA, which is true.

But it's not like Santiago would be the first pitcher to outperform his peripherals.

Weaver, Matt Cain, Tom Glavine, etc.

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If he can get his BB/9 rate down to the 3's then yes. If not I think he's a backend starter or long relief pitcher. It's not a question of these guys' (guys' being Richards, Skaggs, and Santiago) stuff, it's just a matter of them tapping into it and being consistent. If Santiago can get his walks down and use the advantage of moving to a spacious ballpark, he'll be a very solid starter. If Skaggs fixes his mechanical issues, gets his velocity back up, and gets time to learn to pitch on a major league staff, he could be a #2 starter. And if Richards can get some consistent playing time and find some consistency in those starts, we have three talented and young starters. A lot of "ifs" but we'll know soon.

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Can someone explain why everyone expects to see such a huge regression with Santiago? He has put up pretty solid numbers over the last couple years, and he is moving to a more pitcher friendly park. Why are we expecting much more regression this year then he saw last year (his sophomore year).

Butcher

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Are you basing it on his numbers as a starter or his career numbers? Because, his K/9, HR/9, BB/9, numbers last year are right in line with his career. Even as a SP, it's close.

His BaBIP is up, but not really crazy high.

As a starter. He got better as a starter and that is what we paid for. His H/9 has increased causing his WHIP to go to 1.34 and shooting up his ERA. Many posters here expected him to outperform his Texas stats by getting out of Arlington and the heat and moving to a pitchers park with a better defense behind him. The fact is he has not even matched them. It looks like it was probably worth it now but there is no denying he isn't the player we thought we were getting. It's just that pitchers have gotten remarkably more expensive over the last 3 seasons. At the time we were paying him like a number 1.5. Now his same salary is going to pitchers who have careers like number threes. Edited by HaloMagic
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As a starter. He got better as a starter and that is what we paid for. His H/9 has increased causing his WHIP to go to 1.34 and shooting up his ERA. Many posters here expected him to outperform his Texas stats by getting out of Arlington and the heat and moving to a pitchers park with a better defense behind him. The fact is he has not even matched them. It looks like it was probably worth it now but there is no denying he isn't the player we thought we were getting. It's just that pitchers have gotten remarkably more expensive over the last 3 seasons. At the time we were paying him like a number 1.5. Now his same salary is going to pitchers who have careers like number threes.

 

Yeah, I agree the Angels were likely expecting more.  I personally figured his H/9 and HR/9 would be a lock to drop coming to Anaheim and it's not happened -- it's those two areas where he seems to have been consistently worse.

 
Year - Tm - WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 - K/W
2010 - TEX  1.245, 7.1,  0.4,  4.1,  7.5 - 1.83
2011 - TEX  1.187, 7.7,  0.6 , 3.0,  8.3 - 2.78
2012 - LAA  1.344, 8.1,  0.8,  4.0,  7.7 - 1.90
2013 - LAA  1.342, 8.5,  0.6,  3.6,  8.0 -  2.21
 

If there is any sort of reason for hope or improvement it might be in looking at the first half of 2012 when he was outdoing his rates in Texas when he was pitching pain free and the Angels defense wasn't a joke.

 

1st half - 1.159 WHIP, 6.48 H/9, 3.96 BB/9, 0.48 HR/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.80 K:W

 

CJ Wilson may be our poster boy for how underrated defense is.

Edited by Inside Pitch
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