Vegas Odds

[floplag]

Someone noted these in another thread, i think it was DW.... i thought it merited some discussion on its own.

 

Vegas generally isnt wrong.. they didnt become Vegas being wrong... they just made a killing on the SB so... for what its worth here are the Vegas odds for the 2014 WS according to CBS sports.

Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1

Detroit Tigers 8-1

Washington Nationals 9-1

St. Louis Cardinals 10-1

Boston Red Sox 12-1

Cincinnati Reds 15-1

Los Angeles Angels 15-1

Oakland Athletics 15-1

New York Yankees 16-1

Texas Rangers 16-1

Atlanta Braves 17-1

San Francisco Giants 22-1

Pittsburgh Pirates 25-1

Baltimore Orioles 28-1

Cleveland Indians 28-1

Tampa Bay Rays 29-1

Kansas City Royals 35-1

Chicago White Sox 40-1

Philadelphia Phillies 40-1

Arizona Diamondbacks 45-1

Toronto Blue Jays 45-1

Chicago Cubs 60-1

Seattle Mariners 65-1

Colorado Rockies 70-1

San Diego Padres 70-1

Milwaukee Brewers 75-1

New York Mets 115-1

Miami Marlins 125-1

Minnesota Twins 125-1

Houston Astros 250-1

 

What i find notable here is that if you convert this into records, it would seem to suggest that they have us as a favorite ti win the West based on having slightly better odds that either Tex or Oak to win a WS? 

 

I have seen other listing that have them the other way around though in googleing this but in all cases its within 2 pts of each other either way.  One site i saw has all three teams listed at 20-1 on the WS, and all three at 10-1 on the AL pennant.

 

In short, with a little inference it seems Vegas thinks it is definitely a three team race in the West with any of the three having the same chance to win the division and WS.

 

I wonder what would happen if we did get a legit #3?

[ABC]

Vegas does not make predictions on standings. Vegas makes predictions on how they believe people will place their bets. Then the line moves accordingly to influence betters into a 50/50 split on both sides. 

[Eric]

Both the Angels and the Oakland A's get more action in futures bets in Las Vegas than do Seattle or both Texas teams, therefore, the numbers are moved in their favor reflecting that. If you look at futures odds elsewhere you'll find that the Rangers (14 to 1) are actually favored to win the West next year, with the Angels (16 to 1) being 2nd and the A's (18 to 1) 3rd. Still close enough, granted, but not as favored as the above odds would indicate.

Remember, Vegas didn't become Vegas without factoring in where they think most of their action is going to come in and setting the lines to reflect that.

[yk9001]

This means practically nothing.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, the futures provide some of the healthiest vigs for the house of any kind of gambling they offer.  Its a complete rip off for the consumer, and these odds should mean nothing more than a glance and a quick "Hey, how 'bout that?".

[floplag]

I noted that there were variances and yes Vegas odds are as much about where they think the money will go than any real standings and do not directly relate to standing or on field performance.  Though no matter how you look at it a 2% variance isnt much, lower than a typical house rake, and of the roughly 6 sites i chcked it was about 50/50 in terms of who was higher or lower odds.

Lets be clear.. im not implying this has any real meaning, only that i found it interesting that the odds fell here in the case of the Angels, after how horrifically bad last season was, those odds would seem to be far more promising than most even on this board seem willing to project or voice.  I cant imagine too many people looking at those odds and thinking they seem right based on what most say about our chances.

However, PECOTA also seems to think we have a better shot that most have given credit so... im seeing these 2 things today as very positive indicators.. perhaps its wishful thinking, but still.

[yk9001]

I did a quick calculation of the house advantage, it is 18.04%.  The house edge on a simple -110 sports bet is 4.55%.

 

The house advantage is so huge in futures bets as to render any conclusions pretty meaningless.

[floplag]

Well shit as usual the naysayers are saying nay...

On the same day we get PECOTA and VEGAS telling us we are not as bad as our own fan base on this board says we are, and it immediately gets shot down as irrelevant or meaningless.

Whatever, i give up, back to the usual dosage of we suck that has become so prevalent here of late. 

 

I am officially changing my views.. we suck,, be lucky to win 75 games... there, everyone happy?  lol

Edited February 4, 2014 by floplag

[yk9001]

Well shit as usual the naysayers are saying nay...

On the same day we get PECOTA and VEGAS telling us we are not as bad as our own fan base on this board says we are, and it immediately gets shot down as irrelevant or meaningless.

Whatever, i give up, back to the usual dosage of we suck that has become so prevalent here of late. 

 

I am officially changing my views.. we suck,, be lucky to win 75 games... there, everyone happy?  lol

 

You're apparently looking for some sort of argument about the Angels being bad (or good).  I didn't say one thing about the Angels.  But futures odds give the house 4x the advantage of a regular bet, so I'm just saying futures bets aren't much of a barometer, one way or another.

[floplag]

no YK im not.. and that wasn't directed just at you, im just frustrated with virtually every regular poster on this board being down on the team in every imaginable way.

I understand the frustration at the end of last season but here we are a week from ST and the best anyone can seem to say about the team is that if everything goes well we might have a chance.

so much for spring optimism, you'd think we were already 10 out.

[mrwicked]

sucker bets.

i won on the giants futures bet to win it all a few years ago when they won for the first time recently. so it is possible.

[WallyWorld]

no YK im not.. and that wasn't directed just at you, im just frustrated with virtually every regular poster on this board being down on the team in every imaginable way.

I understand the frustration at the end of last season but here we are a week from ST and the best anyone can seem to say about the team is that if everything goes well we might have a chance.

so much for spring optimism, you'd think we were already 10 out.

 

so everyone is supposed to ignore reality because spring training is almost here?  The reality is this team hasn't been particularly good for a few years now, and they didn't do anything significant over the offseason (particularly with regards to the pitching) to think things are going to magically turn around in 2014.   Look, it's baseball and things can change quickly, so I'll root for the Angels to win like I always do, but don't get upset with people on here just because they don't stick their head in the sand.

[fan_since79]

Well shit as usual the naysayers are saying nay...

On the same day we get PECOTA and VEGAS telling us we are not as bad as our own fan base on this board says we are, and it immediately gets shot down as irrelevant or meaningless.

Whatever, i give up, back to the usual dosage of we suck that has become so prevalent here of late. 

 

I am officially changing my views.. we suck,, be lucky to win 75 games... there, everyone happy?  lol

 

Well, we've sucked for four years running now, so a fifth year is not out of the question. 

Especially, as WW stated above, when we've failed to significantly improve our pitching which was in dire need of an upgrade.

Edited February 5, 2014 by fan_since79

[Stradling]

Well, we've sucked for four years running now, so a fifth year is not out of the question.

Especially, as WW stated above, when we've failed to significantly improve our pitching which was in dire need of an upgrade.

I love the we have "sucked for four years now" crowd. In those four years we have averaged 83 wins a season and 89 in one of those years. Now if we were to say we haven't played up to expectations, then I would agree with you. But I have been a fan far too long to think these last four years we have sucked.

[fan_since79]

At this (frustrating) point in my fandom, 

"not playing up to expectations" =  "suck".

 

I'm sorry, but I'm just tired of having a "championship caliber" team and ending up in third place with a bunch of blown games.

[floplag]

ignore reality.. no, but which reality the team that won 89 2 years ago or last years abortion.. you cant really thing this team is that bad.

We have not sucked for 4 years... missed the post yes, sucked, no, dont be stupid, exaggeration is not reality

in the last few years we have had seasons winning 89 and 86 games.. and on paper at lesat this team is better than the 89 win team of 2 seasons ago so...  if you wanna talk reality, how about trying to be real.

[Stradling]

At this (frustrating) point in my fandom,

"not playing up to expectations" = "suck".

I'm sorry, but I'm just tired of having a "championship caliber" team and ending up in third place with a bunch of blown games.

Yea, the Big Catorce should come right out and tell people that the team is going to struggle and play below everyones expectations. Give me a break.

[YouthofToday]

Vegas clearly doesn't understand the importance of CERA. Miami at 125-1 is an insult to catching aficionados the world over.

[arch stanton]

I love the Angels but the smart money here is Tampa at nearly double the payout.

[floplag]

I love the Angels but the smart money here is Tampa at nearly double the payout.

Only if you think they can legitimately beat both the Sox and Yanks, which clearly Vegas does not, nor do i, not this year

[arch stanton]

Vegas knows that our planet is littered with obnoxious asshats who will plop their money down on the Yankees and Red Sox. Not so much the Rays. They are a better value bet.

[floplag]

Vegas knows that our planet is littered with obnoxious asshats who will plop their money down on the Yankees and Red Sox. Not so much the Rays. They are a better value bet.

 

oh i agree there, much better value, but the odds are what they are for a reason   if it hits you are gold

[tdawg87]

no YK im not.. and that wasn't directed just at you, im just frustrated with virtually every regular poster on this board being down on the team in every imaginable way.

I understand the frustration at the end of last season but here we are a week from ST and the best anyone can seem to say about the team is that if everything goes well we might have a chance.

so much for spring optimism, you'd think we were already 10 out.

Interesting. If it wasn't directed at yk then who was it directed at? There was literally nothing posted after the op that merited your anti-negativity rant.

Constant negativity is annoying but overreacting to any form of negativity is just as annoying.

[yk9001]

The juice for the sportsbook on this futures bet is the equivalent of having to bet $14 to win 10 every time you place a football bet at a sports book.

 

Skews the numbers horrifically.

 

But apparently, if a post is anything but sunshine, lollipops, and unicorns blowing perfume out of their asses, everyone is Mr. Negativity.

[floplag]

Interesting. If it wasn't directed at yk then who was it directed at? There was literally nothing posted after the op that merited your anti-negativity rant.

Constant negativity is annoying but overreacting to any form of negativity is just as annoying

 

Im sorry if you find it irritating but all i read here every day is how bad the team is... you try to post something not negative and you get hammered like you insulted someones mother for christs sake.

The attitudes here suck, its going to meltdown if we dont have a great spring.. heck even if we do they will just play the "we had a great spring last year too" card.

Everyone is rude as hades and you are jumping my case for this?  really?   1 post of frustrated overreaction and you jump my case when i have yet to see you say shit to anyone about being a negative jerk?  seriously? 

[ABC]

Well shit as usual the naysayers are saying nay...

 

 

Really? who?