2020 Angelswin.com Primer Series: First Base

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By Robert Cunningham, Angelswin.com Senior Writer

So if they call third base the "hot corner", should they call first base the "cold corner"? These are some of the random thoughts that pass through my head as the Primer Series progresses.

However, the author suspects that Eppler would actually like to make sure that first base heats up in 2020 rather than reenact the cold spell that turned out to be a 27th placed ranking, in total WAR for the year, among all 30 Major League Baseball teams.

Pujols, across 423 plate appearances (PA's) at 1B, provided some offensive productivity (wRC+ of 109) but made up for that by playing bad defense (-10.8 per FanGraphs 'Def' metric). Not Albert's fault though! He was forced there by necessity because Justin Bour was not supposed to put up a .179 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and a pitiful offensive showing (wRC+ of 70). Young prospect Jared Walsh picked up 80 of those PA's to the tune of a wRC+ of 51 as well.

The latter has a lot of promise if he can convert his upper Minor League offensive numbers into similar Major League results. Jared could become a left-handed version of Mark Trumbo with better on-base ability, potentially (versus RHP in particular). However, as much as Eppler wants to place some faith in the younger players to provide needed production this year, Walsh might be better suited to start off 2020 at AAA Salt Lake City and act as a depth piece behind a free agent or trade target for one, or perhaps two, more season(s) (Walsh has two options remaining).

When you consider Jared's inexperience, the departure of Bour to Japan, and the fact that Albert should spend all of his PA's in the Designated Hitter spot, this situation screams for a short-term solution either internally, in trade, or via free agency.

So to start let us examine the best defensive first basemen in the Majors because, as you should know by now, Eppler values quality defense at every position:

2017-2019 Top 35 First Basemen Sorted by FanGraphs 'Def' on a Per Game Rate Basis (Def/G) Minimum 50 G's Played

2017 to 2019 1B Def per G Minimum 50 G's Played

Looking at the choices, you begin to realize why first base is usually a source of offense rather than defense.

Based on the fact that the Angels might have a contributor to play first base long-term such as Walsh, Thaiss, or Ward, a likelier solution for the Angels this off-season would be to acquire, via free agency or trade, a first baseman with short-term control, say 1-2 years, if they really believe that one of the names above is their long-term answer at the "cold corner".

If this is the case, clearly some of the names above like, Muncy, Vogelbach, Olson, and Hoskins, are unavailable or not as desirable as they are valuable, long-term contributors to their current, respective teams.

Players that might be attainable include Belt, McMahon, Adams, Rizzo, Moreland, Bird, Santana, Carpenter, and Mancini, among others. Some, like Belt, Rizzo, Santana, and Carpenter, might be out of Eppler's budget as they are all signed to contracts that would pay them double-digit millions in 2020 Club Payroll, but, as evidenced via the Rendon signing, money is probably not a large barrier. The rest, like McMahon, Adams, Moreland, Bird, and Mancini, would be more affordable from a payroll perspective but may cost more in prospect capital, albeit, probably, for reasonable mid and low-level type farm assets in return (except Bird who is a free agent after the Yankees designated him recently).

So if the defensive bar is so low at first base, it may make sense, as part of this Primer Series, to flip the script and look at the top offensive first basemen:

2017-2019 Top 35 First Basemen Sorted by FanGraphs 'Off' on a Per Game Rate Basis (Off/G) Minimum 50 G's Played

2017 to 2019 1B Off per G Minimum 50 G's Played

No matter how you parse it, most of the top offensive and defensive first basemen in baseball right now are likely unavailable in free agency and trade. Names like Bellinger, Muncy, Alonso, Freeman, and Goldschmidt are all locked in with their current teams.

Out of that list, above, the most available names include Eric Thames, Jose Martinez, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Matt Adams, and maybe Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, and Brandon Belt.

Finding a complete first baseman in this current market is tough. Most of the candidates are good on only one of offense or defense. Additionally, some of those candidates have uneven splits, one way or the other, like Brandon Belt for example. However, most of the names above were at least League-average or better against both sides of the mound in 2019, making them viable additions to round out a lineup.

That being said, the Angels could use improvement against both left and right-handed pitchers and the choice of which first baseman is utilized at the position will probably be driven not only by splits, but also, possibly, by positional versatility around the field.

When you examine the likely positional set-up, players like Trout, Fletcher, Rendon, and Simmons have pretty even splits and above average defense or better, making them full-time candidates in CF, 2B, 3B, and SS. Beyond that the Angels may need to actually find a platoon partner for Upton who can hit lefties (Justin has struggled mightily with them in recent seasons). Goodwin will start the season, probably, in right field but shortly after the season begins, the Angels are very likely to call up young Jo Adell. Adell has run pretty even splits in the Minors but Goodwin can make a good platoon partner or day-off fill-in for our entire outfield. Catcher is less relevant as any offense you get out of the position is gravy. That leaves whatever solution Eppler comes up with at first base.

Reasonably, the previous paragraph lists a lot of full-time Angels players and all of them are right-handed hitters which would normally beg the question of the need for a left-handed bat but those players have fairly even splits which mitigates the need to a large degree. This is, in part, why Tommy La Stella is more likely to stay on the roster for 2020 due to his more productive hitting versus RHP. Additionally, this is what makes Brian Goodwin such a perfect fit for next season, too, because, despite him being a left-handed hitter, he actually hits LHP better (114 wRC+ over the last three years) and he makes a fine temporary right fielder until Adell shows up and he can shift over to pick up some of Upton's at-bats against lefties as-needed.

In the end, it seems reasonable that Eppler will simply try to acquire the best hitter he can find with good splits because the team's offense is, on paper, well balanced production-wise. Defense would be nice but is a secondary concern. So the Angels are probably searching for a player who can fill a lead-off role (more on-base ability) or as an additional power bat to place in the middle or back of the lineup.

Likely Outcome: The Angels could run with one of Jared Walsh, Tommy La Stella, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, or even Albert Pujols but it seems very reasonable that the Halos could add one more experienced bat on either a short-term free agent contract or via trade to increase team depth even further (something the Angels have seriously lacked in previous seasons).

Based on the fact that Eppler and Moreno are going all-in on 2020 it would not be at all shocking to see the Angels take an interest in a free agent like Nick Castellanos on a long-term deal or possibly Justin Smoak or Edwin Encarnacion on a short-term deal that would not extend past the 2021 season (One to two years maximum). On the trade side names like Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, or Yandy Diaz might hold more appeal than some of the other options in the market.

Probability leans toward one of Smoak (free agent), Carpenter (two years of club control), Encarnacion (free agent), Mancini (three years of arbitration control), or, more remotely, Rizzo (two years of club control). Those are the value plays that Eppler is likely targeting if they decide to not run out one of the young guys in 2020. If the Angels do not pick up another first baseman, Tommy La Stella, Matt Thaiss, or Taylor Ward are the more likely set of choices to start at 1B in 2020.

Author's Choice: For me on the trade front, if the Angels manged to grab one of Carpenter (high dollars, low prospect cost) or Mancini (lower dollars, moderate prospect cost) that would be fantastic. On the free agent side Encarnacion or Smoak would be perfectly fine and affordable, costing only cash. Internally I think all three of Walsh, Thaiss, and Ward have the potential to break out (or get traded) but grabbing a guy like Smoak for 1-2 seasons would not only bring in an experienced MLB bat it would improve depth behind Justin, in case of injury or extended absence.

Conclusion: Eppler would probably like to have more assured production at first base so finding a short-term solution while Jared Walsh, Matt Thaiss, and Taylor Ward gain more experience with high Minors pitching makes sense not only for the 2020 teams chances to win the Division but also as a depth move. Certainly he could have one or more of the young guys fight it out in Spring Training but why leave 2020 more to chance?

 
 
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3 Comments


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It’d be so great to get a true masher at 1B. Even limited older 1B like Encarnacion or Smoak (statcast indicated he hit better than his #s suggested) might be good options if they’re reasonably priced. 

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angels will free up any funds to upgrade 1B given the significant need in the rotation. I could see them simply staying the course at 1B and seeing what sticks during spring training between guys like Pujols, LaStella, Thaiss, etc.

It's hard to imagine the Angels moving on from Pujols, though it seems reasonable, so in my mind it’s sort of like, what combination will they run out of Pujols + ? = 2020 1B. 

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51 minutes ago, JBR said:

It’d be so great to get a true masher at 1B. Even limited older 1B like Encarnacion or Smoak (statcast indicated he hit better than his #s suggested) might be good options if they’re reasonably priced. 

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angels will free up any funds to upgrade 1B given the significant need in the rotation. I could see them simply staying the course at 1B and seeing what sticks during spring training between guys like Pujols, LaStella, Thaiss, etc.

It's hard to imagine the Angels moving on from Pujols, though it seems reasonable, so in my mind it’s sort of like, what combination will they run out of Pujols + ? = 2020 1B. 

I’d also love to see Upton take grounders at 1B in spring training. His age and recent injuries make me think 1B could be a better fit long-term since Ohtani will mainly be at DH. I have no idea how team and player feel about that obviously, but if Marsh and Adell pan out then why block an OF spot with an aging OF who’s lost a step?  Moving Upton to 1B could be a boost to 1B and OF simultaneously. 

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17 hours ago, JBR said:

It’d be so great to get a true masher at 1B. Even limited older 1B like Encarnacion or Smoak (statcast indicated he hit better than his #s suggested) might be good options if they’re reasonably priced. 

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angels will free up any funds to upgrade 1B given the significant need in the rotation. I could see them simply staying the course at 1B and seeing what sticks during spring training between guys like Pujols, LaStella, Thaiss, etc.

It's hard to imagine the Angels moving on from Pujols, though it seems reasonable, so in my mind it’s sort of like, what combination will they run out of Pujols + ? = 2020 1B. 

 

16 hours ago, JBR said:

I’d also love to see Upton take grounders at 1B in spring training. His age and recent injuries make me think 1B could be a better fit long-term since Ohtani will mainly be at DH. I have no idea how team and player feel about that obviously, but if Marsh and Adell pan out then why block an OF spot with an aging OF who’s lost a step?  Moving Upton to 1B could be a boost to 1B and OF simultaneously. 

Hi JBR, thanks for reading the series!

In regard to Pujols I really see his role diminishing more to DH'ing and pinch hitting starting in 2020 and his final season in 2021. His offensive productivity came mostly against LHP last year and so it would not be shocking to see him start no more than 80-100 games max, maybe less. He may pick up some 1B time but the Angels probably don't want to see that very often. If the team stays internal, any one of Walsh, Thaiss, or even Ward could see time at 1B. Encarnacion or Smoak make the most sense resource wise. However, I like the idea of Mancini but that may cost to much in prospect capital, his bat looks like it broke out last season.

In regard to Upton, other OF's have certainly found new homes at 1B as their OF defense has declined but it seems like the Angels may want to give him more DH time, particularly after Pujols retires. Certainly an OF of Trout, Adell, and Marsh would be a really exciting combination of offensive and defensive skill, so I am just as excited as you are to see it!

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