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Saunders Emerges as Leader
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ineedanap
Posted 2009-01-27 4:40 AM (#358932)
Subject: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 8133

01/26/09 4:44 PM EST

Saunders emerges as leader for Halos
Left-hander poised to follow up on All-Star season in 2008
By Lyle Spencer / MLB.com

ANAHEIM -- One year ago today, Joe Saunders wasn't a happy camper.
In November, the Angels had traded for Jon Garland, giving manager Mike Scioscia a surplus of starters. For Saunders, who'd been an emergency starter for two years while riding the shuttle from Triple-A Salt Lake to Anaheim, this meant getting ready for a pitched battle in camp with teammate Ervin Santana for the fifth spot in the rotation.

What a difference a year -- and an opportunity -- can make....

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20090126&conten...

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GlausGirl
Posted 2009-01-27 10:13 AM (#359081 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 7737

Location: My Own Private Idaho
Joe's going to have a great season this year, just watch.
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Troll Daddy
Posted 2009-01-27 11:35 AM (#359143 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: RE: Saunders Emerges as Leader




Location: Costa Mesa
Joe's mindset has been the key to his success

Edited by pimpmyteam 2009-01-27 11:36 AM
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Halocory22
Posted 2009-01-27 12:18 PM (#359171 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 12593

Location: Southern Cal
I agree GG, Joe Saunders will be better in 2009.
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Morales4MVP
Posted 2009-01-28 8:40 PM (#360305 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 11241

Interesting stats about his success and his progression.
Debut 2005: 9 innings, 4 Strikeouts but 4 walks, 8 Earned runs and 3 HRs. 7.71 ERA
2006: 70 innings, 51 strikeouts but 29 walks, 6 HRs and 37 earned runs. 4.71 ERA
2007: 107 innings, 69 strikeouts but 34 walks, 11 HRs and 53 earned runs. 4.44 ERA
2008: 198 innings, 101 strikeouts and only 53 walks but 21HRs and 75 earned runs. 3.41 ERA

He made a sharp improvement in lowering his walks and his Fastball velocity has actually gotten better quite a bit from 2005.
His 51Ks in 70 innings from 2006 shows he can strike people out but his 2008 success was in getting the GIDP, lazy popout, and groundout.
He seems to use the strikeouts when he has runners on base and a groundout would result in a run scoring.
His HRs seem to be given up on a 4 seam fastball up high or in the middle of the plate but I have also seen him K a number of hitters with a fastball dotted on the high corner.

Now if Nick Adenhart would follow his trend of trusting his stuff to want to throw it in the strikezone.

Edited by Napoli4MVP 2009-01-28 8:42 PM
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Angel Oracle
Posted 2009-01-29 11:09 AM (#360509 - in reply to #360305)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 50047

Saunders just needed time to build sufficient endurance.

Now, he's poised (assuming good health) to pitch around 210 innings in 2009.
I'm predicting pretty much the same results from 2008 for a guy with great poise on the mound. Even the HRs allowed is decent, no shame should exist in allowing 21 homers in almost 200 innings.
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ModernFaulkner
Posted 2009-01-29 12:22 PM (#360587 - in reply to #360509)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader


Orem Owlz

Posts: 121

Angel Oracle - 1/29/2009 11:09 AM

Saunders just needed time to build sufficient endurance.

Now, he's poised (assuming good health) to pitch around 210 innings in 2009.
I'm predicting pretty much the same results from 2008 for a guy with great poise on the mound. Even the HRs allowed is decent, no shame should exist in allowing 21 homers in almost 200 innings.


His atypically low .269 BABIP last year would suggest he's in line for worse core numbers in 2009 (ERA etc)

edit:

Average would be .290-.300. Comparatively, Lackey had .292, Weaver had .301, and Santana had .293.

Edited by ModernFaulkner 2009-01-29 12:24 PM
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IEBRUIN
Posted 2009-01-29 12:26 PM (#360594 - in reply to #360587)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader




ModernFaulkner - 1/29/2009 12:22 PM
Angel Oracle - 1/29/2009 11:09 AM Saunders just needed time to build sufficient endurance. Now, he's poised (assuming good health) to pitch around 210 innings in 2009. I'm predicting pretty much the same results from 2008 for a guy with great poise on the mound. Even the HRs allowed is decent, no shame should exist in allowing 21 homers in almost 200 innings.
His atypically low .269 BABIP last year would suggest he's in line for worse core numbers in 2009 (ERA etc)

Or it could suggest he's getting better.

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mtangelsfan
Posted 2009-01-29 12:26 PM (#360595 - in reply to #360587)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader




ModernFaulkner - 1/29/2009 1:22 PM
Angel Oracle - 1/29/2009 11:09 AM Saunders just needed time to build sufficient endurance. Now, he's poised (assuming good health) to pitch around 210 innings in 2009. I'm predicting pretty much the same results from 2008 for a guy with great poise on the mound. Even the HRs allowed is decent, no shame should exist in allowing 21 homers in almost 200 innings.
His atypically low .269 BABIP last year would suggest he's in line for worse core numbers in 2009 (ERA etc) edit: Average would be .290-.300. Comparatively, Lackey had .292, Weaver had .301, and Santana had .293.

Plus his moon is rising over Mars, and we all know that means he's in for a difficult year.



Edited by mtangelsfan 2009-01-29 12:27 PM
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ModernFaulkner
Posted 2009-01-29 12:27 PM (#360596 - in reply to #360594)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader


Orem Owlz

Posts: 121

IEBRUIN - 1/29/2009 12:26 PM

ModernFaulkner - 1/29/2009 12:22 PM
Angel Oracle - 1/29/2009 11:09 AM Saunders just needed time to build sufficient endurance. Now, he's poised (assuming good health) to pitch around 210 innings in 2009. I'm predicting pretty much the same results from 2008 for a guy with great poise on the mound. Even the HRs allowed is decent, no shame should exist in allowing 21 homers in almost 200 innings.
His atypically low .269 BABIP last year would suggest he's in line for worse core numbers in 2009 (ERA etc)

Or it could suggest he's getting better.



It could but it doesn't - BABIP has been shown to be uncorrelated with skill.
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IEBRUIN
Posted 2009-01-29 12:28 PM (#360600 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader




So it's all luck?
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ModernFaulkner
Posted 2009-01-29 12:36 PM (#360609 - in reply to #360600)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader


Orem Owlz

Posts: 121

IEBRUIN - 1/29/2009 12:28 PM

So it's all luck?


yeah (or at least for all intents and purposes), which is what makes it a great way to evaluate how much of a pitcher's ERA is bad luck vs. good luck and thus predict future results. From baseball prospectus:

BABIP: Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.


On a more optimistic note, Moseley had a .381 BABIP albeit in limited innings (50.3) - we can conclude he's not quite as bad as he appeared last year and is due to have improved numbers.
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IEBRUIN
Posted 2009-01-29 1:09 PM (#360649 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader




sorry, not buying it. If Pitcher A consistently hits the low corners and batters put those balls into play, i'm sure his BABIP will be lower than Pitcher B who throws straight average fastballs down the middle of the plate. A pitcher's skill has to come into play.
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djags45
Posted 2009-01-29 1:13 PM (#360653 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



All-Star

Posts: 4176

I know that everyone is cautiously optimistic about Saunders given the fact that he doesn't have phenomenal stuff, albeit good stuff. The thing that people seem to forgetting though, is that he was quite arguably our most consistent starter last year. The guy was solid as a rock all year. To me that means he didn't just have a good run to luck into those numbers, he figured it out and did a good job on the mound every fifth day.
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ModernFaulkner
Posted 2009-01-29 1:49 PM (#360678 - in reply to #360649)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader


Orem Owlz

Posts: 121

IEBRUIN - 1/29/2009 1:09 PM

sorry, not buying it. If Pitcher A consistently hits the low corners and batters put those balls into play, i'm sure his BABIP will be lower than Pitcher B who throws straight average fastballs down the middle of the plate. A pitcher's skill has to come into play.


Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez in their primes couldn't produce consistently low BABIPs. Anyway it's not about 'buying it' - that's what the actual research is for. Have a look and let me know where McCracken went wrong.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
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IEBRUIN
Posted 2009-01-29 1:56 PM (#360687 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader




No thanks. I don't give a rat's ass about BABIP. I only care about whether we win or lose .
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Morales4MVP
Posted 2009-01-29 10:13 PM (#361010 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 11241

BABIP is the worst pitching stat IMO.
I'd stick to WHIP over ERA before I even consider BABIP a reliable stat.
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Coachbulldog
Posted 2009-01-29 10:37 PM (#361018 - in reply to #361010)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Big League Angels

Posts: 1419

Location: Midvale, Utah

Napoli4MVP - 1/29/2009 11:13 PM BABIP is the worst pitching stat IMO. I'd stick to WHIP over ERA before I even consider BABIP a reliable stat.

Curious; why is BABIP the "worst pitching stat" and what makes ERA and WHIP more reliable?

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mrwicked
Posted 2009-01-29 10:55 PM (#361032 - in reply to #358932)
Subject: Re: Saunders Emerges as Leader



Hall of Fame

Posts: 28493

Location: San Francisco
imagine saunders mental makeup w/ santana's stuff.
oh boi.
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